Ageing, chronic illness, and AI: What the next 40 years mean for GPs

Deaths will outnumber births in Australia by the 2060s, with an ageing population, chronic disease surge, and rapid AI advancements to reshape the healthcare system by that time.
 
That is according to the 2026 Intergenerational Report, released on Monday, which maps the nation’s 40-year economic future.
 
Its predictions have already led to concerns from GPs about whether general practice will be adequately funded and positioned to adapt to the changes.
 
It reveals that at the same time as Australia’s birthrate is expected to drop to 1.34 children per woman, the 85-plus population is set to triple by 2065–66, up from 625,000 today to 1.9 million – demanding a greater focus on prevention, early detection and reducing risk factors.
 
‘Maintaining high productivity alongside ageing and cost pressures will require continued attention,’ the report said.
 
‘As Australia’s population ages, and chronic conditions become more prevalent, a greater focus on preventative care will be needed.
 
‘Reducing modifiable risk factors, such as smoking, obesity and high alcohol use, and detecting disease early can reduce the long-term fiscal impact of caring for a growing number of people living with chronic conditions.’
 
RACGP President Dr Michael Wright said the report provides ‘useful confirmation’ of what many GPs have already been seeing in general practice.
 
‘The good news is that Australians are on average living longer, but that means they’re spending more years living with chronic health conditions and chronic diseases, and that increase in complex care is being provided by GPs,’ he told newsGP.
 
‘It shows that we really need greater investment to keep people well in the community, and that means having investment into general practice at the top of the list.
 
‘But we’ve seen over the last decade that the percentage of the whole budget going to GP services has been dropping, so it’s really important that we increase that funding urgently.’
 
The Intergenerational Report also points to the rapid rollout of AI, saying the healthcare sector will ‘continue to be shaped by advances in healthcare technology and innovation’, with better integration of digital health technologies allowing the automation of up to 30% of healthcare tasks.
 
‘Continued adoption of digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, could help offset some of the pressures associated with population ageing by improving productivity and reducing administrative burdens,’ the report said.
 
‘International research also suggests that AI technology has significant potential to address workforce pressures in health care and aged care through health monitoring, disease management, and risk prevention.’
 
Dr Wright said while there is ‘great potential’ in AI, the healthcare system will ‘still need the care from an expert generalist’.
 
The report also reveals that capital cities are projected to grow more than twice as quickly as the rest of Australia, while regional communities will age much faster.
 
By 2065–66, the median age is forecast to reach 50.9 years outside capital cities, compared with 43.5 years in metropolitan areas, with the report warning that older, regional populations may struggle to find workers for healthcare and aged care.
 
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the report shows ‘serious risks to Australia’s economy and budget, but our advantages as Australians are substantial’.
 
‘The report confirms Australia is better placed and better prepared to deal with rapid change than most countries, but despite our advantages we cannot be complacent,’ he said.
 
‘This Intergenerational Report’s projections show that in 2066, Australians are expected to live longer, healthier lives, with higher living standards and more secure retirements.’
 
‘At the same time, families will have fewer kids, the population will grow more slowly, and our industries will be transformed by artificial intelligence and clean energy.’
 
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funding Intergenerational Report Jim Chalmers