Unvaccinated patients dominate COVID deaths and ICU

Less than 2% of people admitted to intensive care in New South Wales in the first 11 weeks of the recent outbreak were fully vaccinated, the latest NSW Health weekly surveillance report shows.
 
The document, which gives a breakdown of the vaccination status of all those who enter the hospital system with COVID-19, also shows that none of the 15 fully vaccinated patients who died of the disease were under 70.
 
The latest report covers the week from 29 August until 4 September, the most recent period for which official data has been released in the state at the centre of the largest COVID-19 outbreak so far in Australia.
 
It indicates 4654 people were hospitalised due to COVID-19 from the beginning of the outbreak in June until that time, of which around 9% (441) were treated in ICU.
 
Of the total admitted to hospital, 153 (3.3%) were confirmed as fully vaccinated, while 844 (18.1%) were partially vaccinated and the rest (3657) were unvaccinated, or their vaccination status was unable to be established.
 
In total 284 unvaccinated people (64.4%) had been treated in ICU during the latest outbreak up to 4 September. Seventy patients (15.9%) who received intensive care were categorised as partially vaccinated, while eight (1.8%) were fully vaccinated.
 
The remaining 79 people treated in ICU had an undetermined vaccination status.
 
Professor Dimity Pond, an honorary professor of general practice at the University of Newcastle, said the figures in the surveillance reports correspond with expectations about the vaccines.
 
‘That’s the kind of pattern that we’ve been seeing where the deaths are very largely in people who aren’t vaccinated,’ Professor Pond told newsGP.
 
‘It’s really hard data. It can’t be interpreted in any way other than vaccination means that you’re less likely to die.’
 
Until 4 September, there were 129 confirmed COVID deaths within NSW – again mostly among the unvaccinated. Of those deaths, 15 (11.6%) were confirmed as fully vaccinated, including six people in their 70s, five in their 80s and four in their 90s.
 
For Professor Pond, the data underlines the importance of caution even when the protection from the vaccines is deemed strongest.
 
‘The lesson I take from that is for older people, you can still get COVID if you are vaccinated, particularly if you’ve got underlying conditions,’ she said.
 
‘And it’s still worth, therefore, social distancing and wearing the mask and being careful.’
 
On Monday the NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian reiterated a previous warning that the state’s ICUs are expected to come under most pressure in October, despite an apparent flattening in the number of cases being detected in recent days.
 
There has also been an increased number of daily deaths in recent weeks, with tracking website COVIDLIVE reporting a substantial rise over the past seven days.
 
The vaccination status of patients is less publicly available in Victoria but is often referred to during the daily COVID-19 press conferences. As of 20 September, there had been 12 deaths reported in the state from the recent Delta outbreak.
 
There are currently more than 230 COVID-19 patients in ICU in New South Wales, and 54 reportedly in intensive care in Victoria.
 
Authors of the NSW Health surveillance reports warn that vaccinated people are likely to figure more prominently in future reports.
 
‘As the proportion of the population who are vaccinated increases, the numbers of cases who are fully vaccinated will increase but this does not mean the vaccines are not working,’ the latest report reads.
 
‘The COVID-19 vaccines available in Australia are very effective with evidence showing that people who are fully vaccinated are 70–95% less likely to get sick with COVID-19 compared with those who are not vaccinated.’
 
Professor Pond says she has seen examples within her own practice where vaccination has shielded a vulnerable person with COVID-19 from dying.
 
‘Vaccination makes a huge difference,’ she said. ‘It might not stop you getting the virus. But it makes a difference to whether you die or not.’
 
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COVID-19 deaths ICU intensive care vaccination