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GP shortage to worsen amid unprecedented demand


Chelsea Heaney


6/08/2024 4:12:51 PM

There could be a national workforce shortage of full-time GPs nearing 9000 by 2048, based on the Government’s latest modelling.

A GP is examining a female patient.
Unmet GP demand could reach as high as 8900 full-time positions in 24 years’ time.

The Department of Health and Aged Care (DoHAC) has released a report laying bare the scale of a national GP workforce shortage in the coming decades.
 
Nationally, it predicted a current shortage of 2466 full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs, with this growing to 5560 by 2033, and up to 8908 in 2048. 
 
The Supply and Demand Study: General Practitioners in Australia report, released on Monday, includes modelling based on the number of GPs and a projection of GP FTE positions.
 
It found the supply of GPs is not expected to keep up with growing demand, and that more GPs are leaving the workforce than entering it.
 
‘The GP model results show an undersupply of GPs over the next 25 years, which indicates that we will not have the number of GPs required to keep up with the demand for GP services in the community,’ it reads.
 
‘Although the number of new GPs joining the workforce is gradually rising, it is not sufficient to match the rate at which GPs are leaving the workforce.
 
‘This highlights that the departure rate of GPs from the workforce is outpacing rate of new entrants.’
 
The findings also predict that the number of GPs trained in Australia or New Zealand will decrease from 53.3% in 2023 to 47.6% by 2048.
 
RACGP President Dr Nicole Higgins told newsGP that international doctors are ‘doing the heavy lifting’ when it came to the workforce shortage.
 
‘We knew that already, but this data supports that,’ she said.
 
It also projected that the proportion of the GP workforce who are female will increase from 49.6% in 2023 to 55.8% by 2048, while the average GP age will jump from 49 in 2023 to 51 by 2048.
 
The modelling also shows prevalence rates are expected to increase for several chronic conditions.
 
It found that by 2048, rates of asthma will increase to 11%, cardiovascular disease to 6.2%, diabetes to 6.2%, overweight and obesity to 69%, and mental health to 26.8%.
 
Previous modelling has shown the number of Australians aged 65 and over is predicted to double to 6.9 million by 2060−61, and Dr Higgins says this unmet demand will worsen as patients get older and sicker.
 
‘We are going to have to think about how we do medicine, how we do general practice differently, how we can increase access and also address equity,’ she said.
 
‘The RACGP continues to call for the barriers to [general practice] training to be removed – primarily the loss of work entitlements and pay cuts they’re forced to take when they choose to leave hospital and enter private practice.
 
‘This can be fixed immediately by funding an incentive payment and basic work entitlements, including parental and study leave.’
 
Currently, the report states that the Northern Territory has the highest unmet demand at 23%, while New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have the lowest shortfall (5%).
 
GPs have been crying out for solutions to the current shortages, with the latest RACGP Health of the Nation report highlighting an urgent need to bolster the workforce.
 
In a bid to combat Australia’s healthcare woes, both for GPs and the broader system, Federal Health and Aged Care Minister Mark Butler announced on Tuesday the establishment of a Medical Workforce Advisory Collaboration (MWAC).
 
‘A six-year freeze to the Medicare rebate … meant that general practice was in a parlous state,’ he said.
 
‘MWAC will be a key source of advice for the Government on the implementation of our workforce reviews.’
 
But if Australia’s funding of general practice doesn’t increase from 6.7% of the healthcare budget to 10% soon, Dr Higgins says this report’s worst-case-scenario will play out.
 
‘If there isn’t an increase in funding, and things go as they are modelled, people’s healthcare will be impacted because they can’t see a GP,’ she said.
 
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Dr Gregory Ming Hoi Au   7/08/2024 7:16:21 AM

Who wants to be a GP with payroll tax threatening the viability of your practice?


Dr Gabe Rodrigues   7/08/2024 7:53:49 AM

If they want a more realistic projection, they should take those numbers and multiply that by 1.5.
It’s more likely that most GPs work part-time for the sake of sustainability and longevity. This likely means they need aim to train many more GPs to meet their FTE goals or they’ll always fall short of their goals. That works out to be closer to a shortage of 13000 personnel by 2048.


Dr Brendan Sean Chaston   7/08/2024 9:27:30 AM

With the ongoing devaluing/defunding plus outsourcing of primary care and the progressive mirroring of the NHS why would any medical graduate in their right mind even consider general practice. The future under the current trajectory looks very bleak. Medical training could end up not being a prerequisite of primary care at all.


Prof Janice Margaret Bell   7/08/2024 10:07:49 AM

And now - with no evidence for its validity, reliability, practicality or affordability AHPRA is instituting mandatory health checks for 70 year olds. Given all doctors will be paying for this unfunded new work to keep the bureaucrats at least in a job (through our AHPRA fees). The RACGP fought this - with evidence - when it was mooted along with revalidation. The RACGP should seek an explanation from AHPRA, and specifically seek the evidence that screening will make any difference to quality and safety while drastically damaging accessibility and affordability.


Dr Paul Adam Baggaley   7/08/2024 10:10:00 AM

The problem with this report is it won't be used to address issues affecting the GP shortage - such as making GP training and GP practice per se more attractive - of which the keys issues are improving renumeration and reducing red tape. Rather this report will be ammunition in their mission to substitute more and more less qualified/suited alternative practitioners instead of GPs.


Dr RM   7/08/2024 2:02:30 PM

the government will use this as an excuse to introduce 'role substitution' to fill this gap.
Nurse-led clinics, expanded pharmacy prescribing, allied health referral pathways bypassing GP etc. etc.
Let's hope the college is really going to push-back hard and be more proactive


Dr Jane Elizabeth Christiansen   8/08/2024 12:57:38 AM

Multiple solutions evident- listen to GPs.
That’s the problem.
- GP Registrars having same pay/ leave etc as Hospital Registrars. Would attract more GPs .
- Stop payroll tax.
- Promote ( with financial incentives ) Pharmacist/ Nurse/ Nurse Practitioner working as part of a team with General Practitioner in a General Practice / Family Medical Centre Practice without fear of pay roll tax threat.
If medical people work together ( each with their own strengths ) patient health improves , work load is shared appropriately & safely and without fragmentation of care.
Currently time/ money is wasted unnecessarily on arguing / focusing on fragmentation of care & unsafe division of care where specialties with inadequate training/ experience believe they can provide appropriate care. ( so called scope of practice). Rather each specialty works together within their scope of practice ( what they were actually trained to do) for patient care, efficiency of care , reduced cost . Common sense.


Tasmedic   9/08/2024 12:30:51 PM

I suspect the figures given above might be a tad optimistic. GP's are the most poorly paid Specialists in the healthcare system, and the incentives to enter this scope of practice are gradually diminishing. It's not just pay that's the issue, either. AHPRA keep fiddling with things for no apparent reason, which undermines morale and breeds a climate of uncertainty. Add to this the stress and time commitments required to run a practice, and it's not surprising that a GP workforce shortage is developing.
Never mind, though. Pharmacists can do everything we do, and also sell a few vitamins on top, to boost their bottom line. At least, that seems to be what the Federal and State Governments are encouraging.