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GP shortage to worsen amid unprecedented demand
There could be a national workforce shortage of full-time GPs nearing 9000 by 2048, based on the Government’s latest modelling.
Unmet GP demand could reach as high as 8900 full-time positions in 24 years’ time.
The Department of Health and Aged Care (DoHAC) has released a report laying bare the scale of a national GP workforce shortage in the coming decades.
Nationally, it predicted a current shortage of 2466 full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs, with this growing to 5560 by 2033, and up to 8908 in 2048.
The Supply and Demand Study: General Practitioners in Australia report, released on Monday, includes modelling based on the number of GPs and a projection of GP FTE positions.
It found the supply of GPs is not expected to keep up with growing demand, and that more GPs are leaving the workforce than entering it.
‘The GP model results show an undersupply of GPs over the next 25 years, which indicates that we will not have the number of GPs required to keep up with the demand for GP services in the community,’ it reads.
‘Although the number of new GPs joining the workforce is gradually rising, it is not sufficient to match the rate at which GPs are leaving the workforce.
‘This highlights that the departure rate of GPs from the workforce is outpacing rate of new entrants.’
The findings also predict that the number of GPs trained in Australia or New Zealand will decrease from 53.3% in 2023 to 47.6% by 2048.
RACGP President Dr Nicole Higgins told newsGP that international doctors are ‘doing the heavy lifting’ when it came to the workforce shortage.
‘We knew that already, but this data supports that,’ she said.
It also projected that the proportion of the GP workforce who are female will increase from 49.6% in 2023 to 55.8% by 2048, while the average GP age will jump from 49 in 2023 to 51 by 2048.
The modelling also shows prevalence rates are expected to increase for several chronic conditions.
It found that by 2048, rates of asthma will increase to 11%, cardiovascular disease to 6.2%, diabetes to 6.2%, overweight and obesity to 69%, and mental health to 26.8%.
Previous modelling has shown the number of Australians aged 65 and over is predicted to double to 6.9 million by 2060−61, and Dr Higgins says this unmet demand will worsen as patients get older and sicker.
‘We are going to have to think about how we do medicine, how we do general practice differently, how we can increase access and also address equity,’ she said.
‘The RACGP continues to call for the barriers to [general practice] training to be removed – primarily the loss of work entitlements and pay cuts they’re forced to take when they choose to leave hospital and enter private practice.
‘This can be fixed immediately by funding an incentive payment and basic work entitlements, including parental and study leave.’
Currently, the report states that the Northern Territory has the highest unmet demand at 23%, while New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have the lowest shortfall (5%).
GPs have been crying out for solutions to the current shortages, with the latest RACGP Health of the Nation report highlighting an urgent need to bolster the workforce.
In a bid to combat Australia’s healthcare woes, both for GPs and the broader system, Federal Health and Aged Care Minister Mark Butler announced on Tuesday the establishment of a Medical Workforce Advisory Collaboration (MWAC).
‘A six-year freeze to the Medicare rebate … meant that general practice was in a parlous state,’ he said.
‘MWAC will be a key source of advice for the Government on the implementation of our workforce reviews.’
But if Australia’s funding of general practice doesn’t increase from 6.7% of the healthcare budget to 10% soon, Dr Higgins says this report’s worst-case-scenario will play out.
‘If there isn’t an increase in funding, and things go as they are modelled, people’s healthcare will be impacted because they can’t see a GP,’ she said.
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