Stephen Duckett speaks to ‘transformative’ long-term changes for GPs

High-profile health economist Dr Stephen Duckett says general practice owners will need to adapt as ‘transformative’ changes affect primary care.
 
Dr Duckett will give a keynote speech at the RACGP’s upcoming Practice Owners Conference in Melbourne, with the theme of the 2025 gathering being ‘shaping general practice for the future’.
 
With the full program to be announced in coming weeks, incoming NAB Group Chief Economist Sally Auld will also give a keynote speech, and several pre-conference masterclasses have been announced.
 
Ahead of this speech, Dr Duckett told newsGP that technology advances, as well as recent policy changes to health professionals’ scope of practice are likely to have a big impact on clinics around the country.
 
‘In the short term, say two to three years, general practice may not be significantly impacted by the changes in its environment: the development of algorithms for diagnosis and treatment, competitive provision of care such as pharmacies and nurse practitioners, and online care,’ he said.  
 
‘But these will be transformative in the long term.
 
‘Strategic practice owners will think about that long term and how their practice might adapt given these inevitabilities. What will be their competitive advantage?
 
‘But in the short term, it is just like any business, worrying about the money coming in and the costs going out.’
 
Dr Duckett, formerly the Grattan Institute Health Program Director as well as Secretary for the Federal Health Department, was a member of the Strengthening Medicare Taskforce introduced following the last election.
 
He has previously called for more primary care investment, although his view on where that should be directed has not always aligned with GPs’.
 
‘More money needs to be invested in primary care – significantly more than the $250 million per annum that the Government put on the table in the last election,’ he told a panel looking into the state of Medicare in 2023.
 
‘Simply increasing rebates may not end up with increased bulk billing rates and does not progress the structural form necessary for contemporary primary care.’
 
Dr Duckett also emphasised the importance of shaping healthcare around a population that is living longer but increasingly affected by chronic disease.
 
‘What we need is for patients to have better access to longitudinal and multidisciplinary care, and these are the elements of MyMedicare and the consequent support for practices,’ he said.  
 
‘We don’t know yet how MyMedicare will work in practice, in terms of properly funding multidisciplinary care and patients with multiple chronic diseases, but this is certainly the direction that policy needs to go in.’
 
Dr Duckett also said he believes that two of the key healthcare policies put forward ahead of the Federal Election this year are likely to succeed, including the push to increase bulk billing.  
 
Asked about the importance of GP clinics remaining viable and accessible to patients, Dr Duckett responded with a broader point about care, and the recently announced healthcare policy commitments.
 
Last month the Labor Government pledged $8.5 billion for Medicare, focused on raising bulk-billing rates, a move that was matched the same day by the Coalition.
 
‘From a policy perspective, the question is how important will [GPs] be in the future and how to ensure appropriate access to that care,’ Dr Duckett said.
 
‘Both political parties have supported a policy at this election about expanding the bulk-billing incentive, so obviously that is much on the policy mind.
 
‘My own view is that the policies will be successful, and they will hit 90% of attendances being bulk billed.’
 
The RACGP however has spoken out against this policy, saying it will have ‘unintended impacts’ and ‘just because these bulk-billing incentives are available to everyone doesn’t mean everyone’s going to have access to bulk billing’.
 
He also raised the investment in urgent care clinics, another flagship policy under the current Federal Government – and one that is opposed by the RACGP.
 
Dr Duckett, however, believes the clinics are here to stay.
 
‘Labor has also proposed a significant expansion of urgent care clinics, with the Coalition policy supporting existing clinics, and a couple of new ones in different locations, but to date it has not supported the same level of expansion,’ he said.
 
‘Again, my view is that urgent care clinics are here to stay and will be part of the environment for years to come.’
 
The RACGP Practice Owners Conference 2025 will take place at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre on 24–25 May. Register online.  
 
Log in below to join the conversation

Medicare MyMedicare practice owners Stephen Duckett